Price drop due to coronavirus and high wind power and solar production

Last week there was a general drop in prices in electricity markets. Wind energy and solar production increased in several markets, which together with the effects of the COVID 19 crisis, led to the fall in prices. Minimum prices for the last two years were reached on Saturday, March 28 in the N2EX, EPEX SPOT markets in the Netherlands and Nord Pool. Brent oil, CO2 and TTF gas prices continued to drop, the latter with values ??not seen since 2009.
Photovoltaic and solar thermal production and wind production

During the week of March 23, solar production increased compared to the week of March 16 in most electricity markets in Europe, except in the case of the Italian market. Generation with solar technology increased 35% in Germany, where on March 23 the maximum daily production was reached so far in the first quarter of the year, whose value was 228 GWh. The daily maximum for the first three months of the year was also recorded in Portugal, where production of 4.5 GWh was recorded on March 26. The weekly increase in Portugal was 31%. The Spanish market had the largest increase in production with this technology, of 55%. The decrease registered in Italy was 21%.

In March, there were both falls and increases in solar production year-on-year. In Germany the increase was 34%, followed by Portugal and Spain with 9.5% and 2.3% respectively. In the case of Italy, there was a decrease of 8.5%.

For this week, the analyzes of solar production carried out at AleaSoft indicate that there will be decreases in a large part of the European markets compared to the production registered last week.

Wind power production exhibited uneven behavior during the past week. In the Italian market it doubled and exceeded the previous weekly production by 123%. Other increases occurred in France and Germany, where weekly growth rates were 31% and 52% respectively. In the Iberian peninsula there was a decrease of 19%.

From March 1 to 29, wind energy production suffered decreases in a large part of the European markets. In Italy the fall was 21%, while in Germany it was 12%. In the Iberian peninsula there was an increase of 11%.

AleaSoft expects that this week wind energy production will grow in the Iberian Peninsula, and that it will decrease in the rest of the markets.

Electric demand

Electricity demand fell last week across the board from the week of March 16, mainly due to the confinement established in several countries due to the coronavirus. In several markets, demand varied by more than 7%, including Great Britain, Italy, Portugal and Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.

The demand of the market in Great Britain had the biggest changes during the past week, falling by 13%, as a consequence of the establishment of the confinement of its citizens on Monday, March 23 to stop the spread of the coronavirus. As of Tuesday 24, it was when the changes in demand were most appreciated, among which are the decrease in consumption during working hours and the increase after 18 hours.

The evolution of electricity demand in Italy was also marked last week by new measures adopted by the Government on March 24 to contain coronavirus infections. In what was the third largest in Italy, the decrease in demand was 8.2%. Similar to the behavior in Great Britain, the curve in Italy shows greater similarity between weeks during the characteristic hours of household consumption, at approximately 18 hours.

AleaSoft’s forecasts forecast a drop in average temperatures for this week, which could somewhat offset the downward trend in demand in European markets. Obviously, this would be subject to the predominant influence of changes in industrial and commercial activity such as those we have seen in recent weeks.
European electricity markets

During the past week of March 23 there was a general drop in the prices of electricity markets in Europe.