Solar photovoltaic: predictions for 2024

The solar industry has reached a new stage in its evolution. With about 1.5 TWdc installed globally through 2023, and another 3 TWdc of capacity expected in the next decade, it’s no longer a burgeoning renewable energy technology – it’s a cornerstone of the global energy transition.

In most markets, solar PV will grow to make up the bulk of renewable energy generating capacity. And it will sometimes make up the largest share of generating capacity overall.

But what are the key themes to look out for this year? I’ve set out my view in Three predictions for global solar in 2024. Fill in the form to access a complimentary copy and read on for a short introduction.

Solar will shift from high growth to a slower-growing, mature industry in 2024

As we enter the new year, there are several key trends to watch. Look for a slowdown in growth in several key markets, the long-awaited materialisation of impacts from the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and challenges to the solar manufacturing sector.

Growth in the global solar market is following a typical S-curve. Over the last few years, growth has climbed rapidly up the steepest part of the curve. Starting in 2024, the industry is officially past the inflection point, characterised by a slower growth pattern. The global solar market is of course still many times larger than it was even a few years ago, but average growth in major markets is decelerating. This type of deceleration goes hand-in-hand with maturity.

Not every region is in the same place along the S-curve. Read the full report for more on the markets driving the slowdown, and those yet to hit their growth inflection points. Plus: the full impacts of the IRA should finally materialise this year – how will that change the solar landscape? And will 2024 be a testing time for solar manufacturers? Read Three predictions for global solar in 2024 to find out more.

Michelle Davis

Head of Global Solar

Michelle leads our solar research, identifying emerging industry themes and cultivating a team of solar thought leaders.