China will reach 437,000 megawatts of total wind energy capacity by 2028, according to independent research firm Wood Mackenzie.
The country is expected to add 25,000 MW of annual wind turbines capacity from 2019 to 2028.
Onshore developments will account for 84% of new additions and will receive the same tariff as coal-fired power beginning in 2021, following governmental efforts to reach grid parity.
“Developers are using the window before this deadline to rush to complete subsidized projects, which will boost capacity additions to 28,000 MW in 2020,” said Xiaoyang Li, senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie Power and Renewables.
“Following this surge in new installations, new onshore wind farm capacity in 2021 will suffer a 23% year-on-year decrease when the new subsidy-free policy comes into effect,” she added.
Most of the new wind farm capacity will be located in China’s wind-rich northern region, where 21 out of 22 new bases will be located. Inner Mongolia alone will host 46,000 MW of developments. The price premium in the northern region will be up to 70%, due to low coal prices.
“Developers may face massive losses in 2021 and 2022, and will not be willing to develop wind projects on a large scale,” said Li. “We do not expect averaged national onshore wind power project costs to reach grid parity with coal-fired power until after 2023.”