New wind energy capacity could average 65GW a year between 2018 and 2027, doubling current capacity levels in the next 10 years, according to a new report by consultancy Make.
The report – ‘Q1/2018 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update’ – said that incentive mechanisms and markets moving to auction systems will drive growth to 2020, after which offshore expansion and developments in emerging markets will provide momentum.
However, it warned that growth will depend of the industry’s ability to continue winning capacity awards at auctions and then to develop the projects on time and within budget.
“The precipitous drop in pricing globally over the last year, particularly in the offshore sector, is certainly a rallying point for industry achievement, but it needs to be proven,” the consultancy said.
Northern Europe will see almost 50% of new capacity from the offshore sector, mainly in the UK, over the 2018-2027 period, it added.
Western Europe will be less dependent on offshore compared to Northern Europe, Make said.
Elsewhere, in North America new capacity will be impacted by the production tax credit, which builds growth to 2021 but then drops off as the value of the PTC falls below 80%.
Make said China’s offshore wind sector is expected to mature quickly, with annual additions of 3GW from 2022 to 2027.
Taiwan is also investing in offshore representing 25% of the island’s new capacity in the period, it added.