Worldwide Electric Vehicle Sales to Reach 3.8 Million Annually by 2020

Since the launch of the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt, in late 2010, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have become more widely available in Asia Pacific, North America, and Western Europe.

Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), which first appeared a decade earlier, are now selling steadily in those regions as well.

According to a new report from Pike Research, a part of Navigant’s Energy Practice, annual worldwide sales of these vehicles, collectively referred to as electric vehicles (EVs), will reach 3.8 million by 2020.

“Sales of EVs have not lived up to automakers’ expectations and politicians’ proclamations, but the market is expanding steadily as fuel prices remain high and consumers increasingly seek alternatives to internal combustion engines,” says senior research analyst Dave Hurst.  “Indeed, sales of plug-in EVs will grow at a compound annual growth rate of nearly 40 percent over the remainder of the decade, while the overall auto market will expand by only two percent a year.”

While hybrid vehicles have been widely available for more than a dozen years, the market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has grown rapidly in the last 2 years, reaching more than 120,000 unit sales worldwide in 2012. While the market has positive momentum, it still faces hurdles. This market data report provides updated Pike Research forecasts for these vehicles based on several key assumptions, including vehicle availability, economic growth, petroleum fuel prices, government influence on the market, and the overall vehicle market.

Despite political targets that are likely to be missed, these assumptions point to robust growth worldwide for electric vehicles, with hybrids growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%, and PEVs (combined plug-in hybrid and battery electric) growing at a CAGR of 39% between 2012 and 2020. While Japan is anticipated to be the largest market for hybrids in 2020, the United States is anticipated to be the largest market for PEVs that year. However, European countries, with the combination of high gas prices and supportive government policies, are anticipated to have the highest concentrations of plug-in electric vehicles.

This Pike Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for light duty hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric cars and trucks. The report includes comprehensive data for sales and underlying forecast assumptions for the consumer and fleet markets. Annual vehicle sales by electric vehicle segment and market share for key manufacturers are forecast through 2020, segmented by world region and key countries.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How many hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles will sell each year through 2020?
  • What are some of the key factors that are driving growth in the electrified vehicle market?
  • What will be the penetration of hybrids and PEVs within the total annual vehicle market?
  • Which plug-in and hybrid models are OEMs expected to launch in the next few years?
  • What are the anticipated gas and diesel prices in the coming years?
  • What incentives are available for PEV purchases?
  • How many hybrid and plug-in vehicles will be sold to fleet customers?
  • Which manufacturers are the most likely to see the greatest market share in the United States and Germany?