Roadmap of CO2 and Powertrain and Green Technology Adoption

This Frost & Sullivan research service titled Implementation Roadmap of CO2 Tax Banding in European Countries and Impact Analysis on Powertrain and Green Technology Adoption provides the key strategies followed by automakers to meet the Advisory Committee on Environmental Aspects (ACEA)s target for 2012-2015 and the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) taxation on automaker technology and powertrain planning. The research covers the following European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Market Overview

Europe to Change to a Carbon Dioxide-based Vehicle Taxation Regime to Attain a Low-carbon Automotive Industry

The European countries are moving to a CO2-based vehicle taxation regime in order to achieve a low-carbon automotive industry in the future. Additionally, vehicle manufacturers (VMs) need to comply with the EU CO2 norms of average fleet emissions at lesser than 130g/km by 2015, making the years up to 2015 critical for them.

This has spurred the demand for low-CO2 cars, and every European VM is racing towards capturing a share of this opportunity. "By 2015, the average car in Europe will be 5 per cent lighter with 30 per cent lower CO2 emissions," says the analyst of this research. "Downsizing, gasoline direct injection (GDI), and start-stop will be the key technologies helping original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) achieve emission targets by 2015." About 8-10 million cars are expected to be in the less than 120g/km CO2 emission band in Europe by 2015 – a significantly attractive market opportunity for both volume and premium manufacturers.

While VMs invest heavily in the development of new low-CO2 models and engine variants, it is challenging to pass on these costs to the customer, risking the OEMs profitability. "Offsetting the high growth costs for green technologies and time for returns-on-investment (ROI) on certain expensive developments such as GDI and hybridisation will be a key commercial challenge for automakers," explains the analyst.

On one hand, automakers are anticipated to use different strategies for emission reduction, with mass manufacturers adopting moderate downsizing and technologies like variable valve train (VVT) and GDI. On the other hand, premium automakers will invest significantly on aggressive engine downsizing by more than 20 per cent, combined with full hybridization. "Premium manufacturers such as Daimler and BMW are likely to use a combination of electric vehicles, hybridization, and downsizing to achieve their 2015 CO2 emission target of 130g/km, while volume manufacturers will use a mix of green technologies such as GDI, VVT and start-stop systems," concludes the analyst.

Key Topics Covered:
1. Executive Summary
* 1.1 Mega trends in Europe
* 1.2 Average Engine Displacement of Cars in EU-15
* 1.3 Passenger Car Sales by CO2 Emission Range
* 1.4 Analysis and Roadmap of CO2 Incentives and Legislations Across Countries
* 1.5 Analysis of Green Technology Roadmap Across OEMs
* 1.6 Current Vehicle Manufacturers (VM) CO2 Emission Fleet Average and Forecast
* 1.7 Market Share of VMs for Vehicle Sales under 120g/km CO2
* 1.8 Scenario Analysis VM Emission Fleet Average Forecast
* 1.9 Key Conclusions and Opportunity Analysis

2. Market Overview
* 2.1 Introduction
* 2.2 Key Industry Challenges
* 2.3 CO2 Specific Emission Across Vehicle Manufacturers
* 2.4 Technology Roadmap for CO2 Emission Reduction
* 2.5 Scenario Analysis VM Average Specific Emissions
* 2.6 CO2 segmentation based on Vehicle Segments

3. CO2 Tax Legislation in Europe
* 3.1 Comparison of Vehicle Taxation Structure in Europe
* 3.2 CO2 Incentives and Legislations Across Countries
* 3.3 Country-wise CO2 Emission Based Taxation
* 3.4 Super-credits for low-emission Vehicles less than 50g/km of CO2

4. OEM Analysis
* 4.1 BMW Group
* 4.2 Daimler Group Mercedes Benz
* 4.3 Fiat Group
* 4.4 Ford Group
* 4.5 Adam Opel
* 4.6 Honda Group
* 4.7 PSA Peugeot Citron
* 4.8 Renault Nissan Group
* 4.9 Toyota Group
* 4.10 Volkswagen Group