Requested by Congress, the report assesses what economists call external effects caused by various energy sources over their entire life cycle — for example, not only the pollution generated when gasoline is used to run a car but also the pollution created by extracting and refining oil and transporting fuel to gas stations. Because these effects are not reflected in energy prices, government, businesses and consumers may not realize the full impact of their choices. When such market failures occur, a case can be made for government interventions — such as regulations, taxes or tradable permits — to address these external costs, the report says.
The committee that wrote the report focused on monetizing the damage of major air pollutants — sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, ozone, and particulate matter – on human health, grain crops and timber yields, buildings, and recreation. When possible, it estimated both what the damages were in 2005 (the latest year for which data were available) and what they are likely to be in 2030, assuming current policies continue and new policies already slated for implementation are put in place.
The committee also separately derived a range of values for damages from climate change; the wide range of possibilities for these damages made it impossible to develop precise estimates of cost. However, all model results available to the committee indicate that climate-related damages caused by each ton of CO2 emissions will be far worse in 2030 than now; even if the total amount of annual emissions remains steady, the damages caused by each ton would increase 50 percent to 80 percent.
DAMAGES FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Coal accounts for about half the electricity produced in the U.S. In 2005 the total annual external damages from sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter created by burning coal at 406 coal-fired power plants, which produce 95 percent of the nation’s coal-generated electricity, were about $62 billion; these nonclimate damages average about 3.2 cents for every kilowatt-hour (kwh) of energy produced. A relatively small number of plants — 10 percent of the total number — accounted for 43 percent of the damages. By 2030, nonclimate damages are estimated to fall to 1.7 cents per kwh.
Coal-fired power plants are the single largest source of greenhouse gases in the U.S., emitting on average about a ton of CO2 per megawatt-hour of electricity produced, the report says. Climate-related monetary damages range from 0.1 cents to 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, based on previous modeling studies.
Burning natural gas generated far less damage than coal, both overall and per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. A sample of 498 natural gas fueled plants, which accounted for 71 percent of gas-generated electricity, produced $740 million in total nonclimate damages in 2005, an average of 0.16 cents per kwh. As with coal, there was a vast difference among plants; half the plants account for only 4 percent of the total nonclimate damages from air pollution, while 10 percent produce 65 percent of the damages. By 2030, nonclimate damages are estimated to fall to 0.11 cents per kwh. Estimated climate damages from natural gas were half that of coal, ranging from 0.05 cents to 5 cents per kilowatt-hour.
The life-cycle damages of wind power, which produces just over 1 percent of U.S. electricity but has large growth potential, are small compared with those from coal and natural gas. So are the damages associated with normal operation of the nation’s 104 nuclear reactors, which provide almost 20 percent of the country’s electricity. But the life cycle of nuclear power does pose some risks; if uranium mining activities contaminate ground or surface water, for example, people could potentially be exposed to radon or other radionuclides; this risk is borne mostly by other nations, the report says, because the U.S. mines only 5 percent of the world’s uranium. The potential risks from a proposed long-term facility for storing high-level radioactive waste need further evaluation before they can be quantified. Life-cycle CO2 emissions from nuclear, wind, biomass, and solar power appear to be negligible when compared with fossil fuels.
DAMAGES FROM HEATING
The production of heat for buildings or industrial processes accounts for about 30 percent of American energy demand. Most of this heat energy comes from natural gas or, to a lesser extent, the use of electricity; the total damages from burning natural gas for heat were about $1.4 billion in 2005. The median damages in residential and commercial buildings were about 11 cents per thousand cubic feet, and the proportional harm did not vary much across regions. Damages from heat in 2030 are likely to be about the same, assuming the effects of additional sources to meet demand are offset by lower-emitting sources.
DAMAGES FROM MOTOR VEHICLES AND FUELS
Transportation, which today relies almost exclusively on oil, accounts for nearly 30 percent of U.S. energy demand. In 2005 motor vehicles produced $56 billion in health and other nonclimate-related damages, says the report. The committee evaluated damages for a variety of types of vehicles and fuels over their full life cycles, from extracting and transporting the fuel to manufacturing and operating the vehicle. In most cases, operating the vehicle accounted for less than one-third of the quantifiable nonclimate damages, the report found.
Damages per vehicle mile traveled were remarkably similar among various combinations of fuels and technologies — the range was 1.2 cents to about 1.7 cents per mile traveled — and it is important to be cautious in interpreting small differences, the report says. Nonclimate-related damages for corn grain ethanol were similar to or slightly worse than gasoline, because of the energy needed to produce the corn and convert it to fuel. In contrast, ethanol made from herbaceous plants or corn stover — which are not yet commercially available — had lower damages than most other options.
Electric vehicles and grid-dependent (plug-in) hybrid vehicles showed somewhat higher nonclimate damages than many other technologies for both 2005 and 2030. Operating these vehicles produces few or no emissions, but producing the electricity to power them currently relies heavily on fossil fuels; also, energy used in creating the battery and electric motor adds up to 20 percent to the manufacturing part of life-cycle damages.
Most vehicle and fuel combinations had similar levels of greenhouse gas emissions in 2005. There are not substantial changes estimated for those emissions in 2030; while population and income growth are expected to drive up the damages caused by each ton of emissions, implementation of new fuel efficiency standards of 35.5 miles per gallon will lower emissions and damages for every vehicle mile traveled. Achieving significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 will likely also require breakthrough technologies, such as cost-effective carbon capture and storage or conversion of advanced biofuels, the report says.
Both for 2005 and 2030, vehicles using gasoline made from oil extracted from tar sands and those using diesel derived from the Fischer-Tropsch process — which converts coal, methane, or biomass to liquid fuel — had the highest life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Vehicles using ethanol made from corn stover or herbaceous feedstock such as switchgrass had some of the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, as did those powered by compressed natural gas.
Fully implementing federal rules on diesel fuel emissions, which require vehicles beginning in the model year 2007 to use low-sulfur diesel, is expected to substantially decrease nonclimate damages from diesel by 2030 — an indication of how regulatory actions can significantly affect energy-related damages, the committee said. Major initiatives to further lower other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner mix of energy sources could reduce other damages as well, such as substantially lowering the damages attributable to electric vehicles.
The report was sponsored by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council make up the National Academies. They are independent, nonprofit institutions that provide science, technology, and health policy advice under an 1863 congressional charter. Committee members, who serve pro bono as volunteers, are chosen by the Academies for each study based on their expertise and experience and must satisfy the Academies’s conflict-of-interest standards. The resulting consensus reports undergo external peer review before completion. For more information, visit http://national-academies.org/studycommitteeprocess.pdf. A committee roster follows.
Copies of HIDDEN COSTS OF ENERGY: UNPRICED CONSEQUENCES OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND USE are available from the National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on the Internet at HTTP://WWW.NAP.EDU. Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).
[ This news release and report are available at HTTP://NATIONAL-ACADEMIES.ORG ]
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Policy and Global Affairs
Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy
COMMITTEE ON HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND OTHER EXTERNAL COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
JARED L. COHON (CHAIR)
Carnegie Mellon University
MAUREEN L. CROPPER1 (VICE CHAIR)
Department of Economics
University of Maryland
College Park, and
Resources for the Future
MARK R. CULLEN2
Professor of Medicine and Chief
Division of General Internal Medicine
ELISABETH M. DRAKE3
Associate Director for New Energy Technology
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (RETIRED)
MARY R. ENGLISH
Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment
University of Tennessee
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD1
Department of Global Ecology
Carnegie Institute for Science
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM
President and Chief Executive Officer
Health Effects Institute
JAMES K. HAMMITT
Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences, and
Center for Risk Analysis
Harvard School of Public Health
ROGENE F. HENDERSON
Senior Biochemist and Toxicologist Emeritus
Experimental Toxicology Program
Lovelace Respiratory Institute
CATHERINE L. KLING
Professor of Economics and Head
Resource and Environmental Policy Division
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State University
ALAN J. KRUPNICK
Senior Fellow and Director
Quality of the Environment Division
Resources for the Future Washington, D.C.
Distinguished R&D Staff Member
Science and Technology Policy
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tenn.
H. SCOTT MATTHEWS
Green Design Institute; and
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering/Department of Engineering and Public Policy
Carnegie Mellon University
THOMAS E. MCKONE
Senior Staff Scientist
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and
School of Public Health
University of California
GILBERT E. METCALF
Professor of Economics
Gendell Associate Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics
Nicholas School of the Environment
RICHARD L. REVESZ
School of Law
New York University
New York City
IAN SUE WING
Department of Geography and Environment
TERRANCE G. SURLES
Technology Integration and Policy Analysis Program Researcher
Hawaii Natural Energy Institute
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
University of Hawaii at Monoa
1 Member, National Academy of Sciences
2 Member, Institute of Medicine
3 Member, National Academy of Engineering
4 Resigned Aug. 2, 2009, to accept appointment as administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration