The pipeline of clean energy technology manufacturing projects remains vibrant, with significant additions in the past six months, though the average rate of new capacity announcements slowed relative to the pace set during the first quarter of the year, according to the latest update from the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) series
Released today, the ETP Special Briefing on the State of Clean Technology Manufacturing provides a snapshot of recent progress in clean energy technology manufacturing for five key technologies – solar PV, wind, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – that will be critical to the energy transition. The Briefing focuses on the areas of supply chains that are showing the greatest dynamism in response to recent policy and industrial strategy developments.
Deploying clean energy technologies at the pace required to put the world on a trajectory consistent with net zero emissions by mid-century will demand a rapid acceleration in global manufacturing capacity. The Briefing takes into account the latest updates to the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap, published in September 2023, to track how manufacturing relates to goals for deployment consistent with net zero emissions.
It finds that announcements made in Q2 and Q3 2023 – the analysis period since the last update in May – account for nearly 40% of the total announced manufacturing capacity for solar PV, 10% for batteries, and 20% for electrolysers.
Solar PV and battery manufacturing are already tracking the milestones for 2030 deployment in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario), and the latest Briefing shows that announced projects for electrolyser manufacturing could also meet deployment needs for the NZE Scenario in 2030, if all projects come to fruition. However, only a small proportion – less than 10% – of announced projects for electrolysers can be considered committed, compared with around one quarter for solar PV.
In contrast, there has been very limited activity in the project pipeline for wind energy component manufacturing, and capacity remains significantly below the deployment levels required in the NZE Scenario. Announcements of heat pump manufacturing capacity have also slowed down compared with 2022 in the face of uncertainty about demand and delays to policy implementation. As the report shows, any delay or uncertainties in the implementation of policies relevant to manufacturing can have a direct impact on the pipeline of announced projects. In contrast, strong policy support can help to raise manufacturing ambitions. This is reflected in recent changes to the shares of clean energy technology manufacturing located in different countries and regions.
This is the second edition of a Special Briefing that was prepared in May 2023 to support the deliberations at the 2023 G7 Leaders’ Summit in Hiroshima, Japan. These publications build on analysis conducted as part of the latest edition of the IEA’s flagship technology publication, Energy Technology Perspectives 2023, published in January 2023.