Electric Vehicle Traction Batteries 2012-2022

EVWIND

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This comprehensive report has detailed assessments and forecasts for all the sectors using and likely to use traction batteries.

There are chapters on heavy industrial, light industrial/commercial, mobility for the disabled, two wheel and allied, pure electric cars, hybrid cars, golf cars, military, marine and other. The profusion of pictures, diagrams and tables pulls the subject together to give an independent view of the future ten years.

Unit sales, unit prices and total market value are forecast for each sector for 2012-2022. The replacement market is quantified and ten year technology trends by sector are in there too, with a view on winning and losing technologies and companies.

This is the essential reference book for those who are anywhere in the hybrid and pure electric vehicle value chain. Those making materials, cells, battery sets or vehicles, researchers, legislators and market analysts will find it invaluable.The whole pictureWith vehicle traction batteries it is important to look at the whole picture and this report does it for the first time. The rapidly growing market for traction batteries will exceed $55 billion in only ten years. However that spans battery sets up to $500,000 each with great sophistication needed for military, marine and solar aircraft use. Huge numbers of low cost batteries are being used for e-bikes but even here several new technologies are appearing. The largest replacement market is for e-bikes today and the value market for replacement batteries will not be dominated by cars when these batteries last the life of the car – something likely to happen within ten years. The trends are therefore complex and that is why IDTechEx has analysed them with great care.

Vehicle manufacturers are often employing new battery technology first in their forklifts or e-bikes, not cars, yet there is huge progress with car batteries as well – indeed oversupply is probable in this sector at some stage. The mix is changing too. The second largest volume of electric vehicles made in 2010 was mobility aids for the disabled but in ten years time it will be hybrid cars. The market for car traction batteries will be larger than the others but there will only be room for six or so winners in car batteries and other suppliers and users will need to dominate their own niches to achieve enduring growth and profits. Strategy must be decided now.

In this report, researched in 2010 and 2012 and frequently updated, we analyse the successes, the needs, the statistics and the market potential for traction batteries for all the major applications. This has never been done before. It is important to look at the whole picture because traction battery manufacturers typically sell horizontally across many applications and electric vehicle manufacturers increasingly make versions for many applications – heavy industrial, on road, leisure and so on. Indeed, the smarter putative suppliers will choose the sectors that best leverage their strengths rather than join the herd and be obliterated by corporations of up to $100 billion in size enjoying prodigious government support.1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS1.1. The decade of hybrid vehicles1.2. Market 2012-20221.2.1. Strong numbers growth1.3. Replacement business1.3.1. China1.3.2. Replacement market1.3.3. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important1.3.4. Winning chemistry1.3.5. Winning lithium traction battery manufacturers1.3.6. Making lithium batteries safe1.4. Price war1.4.1. $30 billion industry – two thirds vehicle traction1.5. Massive investments1.5.1. Government support1.5.2. Stronger value growth, hybrids pull ahead1.5.3. Mark ups through the value chain1.6. Largest sectors1.6.1. Trends1.6.2. Battery chemistry1.6.3. Battery shape and photovoltaics1.6.4. Ribbon and conformal batteries1.6.5. Heavy industrial sector1.6.6. The light industrial and commercial sector1.6.7. Mobility for the disabled1.6.8. Two wheel and allied vehicles1.6.9. Cars1.6.10. Golf1.6.11. Military1.6.12. Marine1.6.13. Other1.7. Market for EV components1.7.1. Timelines1.7.2. Watch Japan, China and Korea1.7.3. Full circle back to pure EVs1.7.4. Range extenders1.7.5. Envia breakthrough in 20121.7.6. Winning strategies1.8. Who is winning in lithium-ion traction batteries – and why1.8.1. The needs have radically changed1.8.2. It started with cobalt1.8.3. Great variety of recipes1.8.4. Other factors1.8.5. Check with reality1.8.6. Lithium winners today and soon1.8.7. Reasons for winning1.8.8. Winner will be Toyota?1.8.9. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important1.8.10. Genuinely Solid State Traction Batteries1.8.11. Winning chemistry1.8.12. Titanate establishes a place for Li-ion anodes1.8.13. Laminar structure2. INTRODUCTION2.1. Definitions, scope, history2.2. The EV value chain2.3. Pure electric vs hybrid vehicles2.4. Battery cells, modules, packs2.5. Construction of battery packs2.5.1. Changing factors2.5.2. NiMH vs lithium2.5.3. Replacement traction battery pack market 2011-20212.5.4. Plug in hybrids take over from mild hybrids2.6. Pure electric and hybrid converge2.6.1. Two options converge2.7. Fuel cells2.8. The ideal car traction battery pack2.9. Traction batteries today2.10. First generation lithium traction batteries2.11. Second generation lithium traction batteries2.12. The future2.12.1. Third generation lithium traction batteries2.12.2. Trends in energy storage vs battery pack voltage2.12.3. Companies wishing to make the new batteries2.13. How to improve lithium traction batteries2.13.1. Basic needs2.13.2. Life2.13.3. Energy density2.13.4. Safety2.14. USA and Europe play catch up2.15. Technological leapfrog2.16. Academic research and small companies2.17. Industrial leverage2.17.1. Major funding can have strange impacts2.17.2. Rapid profits for some2.17.3. Impediments2.18. Benefits of EVs2.19. Traction battery design considerations2.20. Future evolution of hybrids and pure electric cars2.20.1. Specification changes2.20.2. Move to high voltage2.20.3. Battery performance over time – battery life2.20.4. Battery state of charge2.20.5. Depth of discharge affects life2.20.6. Capacity rating2.20.7. Daily depth of discharge2.20.8. Charging and discharging rates2.21. Requirements – hybrids vs pure electric2.21.1. Plug in requirements align with pure electric cars2.21.2. Hybrids need power and pure electrics need capacity – for now2.21.3. Parallel hybrids differ2.21.4. Plug in hybrids try to be the best of both worlds2.21.5. Watt hours per mile2.21.6. Charging rates2.21.7. Custom packaging2.22. Fast charging batteries and infrastructure3. PROGRESS WITH NEW GENERATION LITHIUM TRACTION BATTERIES3.1. Introduction3.2. Lithium manganese3.3. Lithium iron phosphate3.4. Lithium air and lithium metal3.5. Lithium sulfur3.6. Other challenges4. HEAVY INDUSTRIAL EVS4.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector4.1.1. GE USA4.1.2. East Penn Manufacturing Corporation USA4.1.3. Furukawa Battery Japan4.1.4. Nissan lithium forklift Japan4.1.5. Balqon lithium heavy duty vehicles USA4.2. Listing of manufacturers4.3. Market size4.4. Heavy industrial traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 20215. LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL EVS5.1.1. Sub categories5.1.2. Buses5.2. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector5.2.1. A123 Systems5.2.2. Axeon UK5.2.3. Eaton Corporation USA5.2.4. KD Advanced Battery Group Dow USA Kokam Korea5.2.5. Lithium Technology Corporation/GAIA USA5.2.6. MAGNA STEYR AG & Co KG Austria5.2.7. Valence Technologies USA5.2.8. Lishen Power Battery China5.3. Market drivers5.3.1. Governments get involved5.4. Importance of batteries and power trains5.4.1. Freightliner and Enova5.4.2. China Vehicles Company5.4.3. Ford Transit5.5. EVs for local services5.6. Airport EVs5.7. Small people-movers5.8. Light industrial aids5.8.1. Heavy duty on-road trucks become hybrids5.9. Listing of manufacturers5.10. Light industrial / commercial traction battery market forecasts 2011-20216. MOBILITY FOR THE DISABLED6.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector6.2. The sector with the most compelling and enduring need6.3. Laws make mobility easier6.4. Interchina Industry Group China6.5. Market drivers6.5.1. Geographical distribution6.5.2. Zhejiang R&P Industry China6.6. Listing of manufacturers6.7. Mobility aid traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 20216.7.1. Growth by creating new markets7. TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES7.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector7.1.1. Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) China7.1.2. Leyden Energy USA7.1.3. PowerGenix USA7.1.4. ReVolt Technologies Ltd Switzerland7.1.5. Toshiba Japan7.2. Batteries and specifications for two wheelers7.2.1. Electric two wheelers prices and performance7.2.2. Yamaha lithium Japan7.2.3. Eko Vehicles lead acid scooters India7.2.4. Honda lithium motorcycle Japan7.2.5. Peugeot lithium scooter France7.3. Hybrid motorcycles7.3.1. YikeBike lithium New Zealand7.4. The big winners in western markets7.5. Listing of manufacturers7.5.1. 70 examples of manufacturers7.5.2. China7.6. Two wheeled and allied traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 20218. GOLF EVS8.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector8.1.1. Change of leader? Ingersoll Rand and Textron USA8.1.2. Suzhou Eagle and many others in China8.2. Listing of manufacturers8.3. Golf car and caddy traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 20219. CARS9.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector9.1.1. Automotive Energy Supply Japan9.1.2. Panasonic EV Energy, Sanyo Japan9.1.3. Blue Energy, Lithium Energy Japan – GS Yuasa Japan with Honda, Mitsubishi9.1.4. Bolloré France9.1.5. Boston Power9.1.6. BYD China9.1.7. China BAK in China9.1.8. Coda Battery Systems, Yardney USA, Tianjin Lishen China9.1.9. Continental Germany and ENAX Japan9.1.10. Envia Systems USA9.1.11. Hitachi Japan9.1.12. IBM and National laboratories USA9.1.13. Inci Holding Turkey9.1.14. LG Chem Korea with Compact Power9.1.15. LiFeBATT Taiwan9.1.16. Li-Tec Evonik Industries Germany and Daimler9.1.17. Mitsubishi Japan with Sumitomo Japan9.1.18. Next Alternative Germany, Micro Bubble Technology Korea9.1.19. Planar Energy Devices USA9.1.20. Sakti3 USA and General Motors USA9.1.21. SB LiMotive Co. Ltd – Samsung Korea with Bosch Germany9.1.22. Sony Japan9.1.23. Superlattice Power USA9.2. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers9.2.1. Examples of manufacturers9.2.2. Recharging points9.2.3. Battery changing points9.2.4. Can the grid cope?9.3. Car traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 20219.3.1. Total car traction battery market value 2011 to 20219.3.2. Battery pack market by car type 2012-20229.3.3. Hybrid battery prices9.3.4. Replacement car traction battery pack market 2010-202010. PURE ELECTRIC CARS10.1. Electricity solely for traction10.2. Examples of pure EV cars10.2.1. Nissan Leaf lithium Japan, UK, USA10.2.2. Here come the Chinese – BYD, Brilliance, Geely, Chengfang10.2.3. Jianghsu lead acid China10.2.4. High performance pure lithium EVs – Tesla USA10.2.5. Lightning lithium UK10.2.6. Subaru Stella lithium Japan10.2.7. REVA lead acid or lithium India10.2.8. Club Car lead acid USA10.2.9. Tara Tiny lead acid India10.2.10. Mitsubishi iMiEV lithium Japan10.2.11. Renault Nissan lithium France11. HYBRID CARS11.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids11.1.1. Evolution11.1.2. Frazer Nash Namir lithium UK11.1.3. Chevrolet Volt lithium USA11.1.4. Toyota Prius NiMH, lithium Japan11.1.5. Fisker Karma lithium USA12. MILITARY12.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector12.1.1. ABSL UK12.1.2. Altair Nanotechnologies (Altairnano) USA12.1.3. Electrovaya Canada12.1.4. Hummer12.1.5. Chrysler12.1.6. Saft France, Johnson Controls USA12.2. Examples of military EVs12.2.1. Manned land vehicles.12.2.2. Hummer lithium USA / China12.2.3. Quantum Technologies lithium USA12.2.4. US Army trucks etc – ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA12.2.5. Oshkosh Truck Corp USA12.2.6. Plug-in trucks – BAE Systems UK12.2.7. Electric robot vehicles USA12.3. In the air12.3.1. Disposable surveillance aircraft12.3.2. DARPA insects USA12.3.3. COM-BAT lithium robot bat USA12.3.4. Aerovironment electric aircraft USA12.4. Examples of military EVs – in the water12.4.1. Robot lithium jellyfish USA and Germany12.5. Manufacturers of military EVs12.6. Military traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 202113. MARINE13.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector13.1.1. Gavia Iceland13.1.2. PolyPlus Battery USA13.1.3. ThunderPower USA13.2. Market segments13.2.1. Total market13.2.2. Underwater13.2.3. On the water13.3. Commonality with land EVs13.4. Market drivers13.4.1. Pollution laws back electric boats13.5. Energy harvesting superyacht UK13.5.1. Cleaner yachts – Valence, Bénéteau13.6. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs)13.6.1. Swimmers13.7. Leisure and tourist submarines USA13.8. Manufacturers by country and product13.8.1. Examples of companies making electric water craft13.9. Marine traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 202113.9.1. Surface and subsurface boat markets13.9.2. AUV14. OTHER EVS14.1. Market drivers14.2. Listing of manufacturers by country and product14.3. Companies in the mobile robot and leisure sector14.4. Electric aircraft for civil use14.4.1. Sion Power USA – Aircraft batteries14.4.2. Aircraft – Renault, Piccard14.5. Other traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

To order this report:Clean Vehicle Industry: Electric Vehicle Traction Batteries 2012-2022