Electric Vehicles Geographic Forecasts

Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts by State, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and Selected Utility Service Territories

Pike Research forecasts an annual plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market in the United States of about 359,000 electric vehicles by 2017. Unfortunately, for many industry players who are working on setting up recharging station networks, developing product and production plans, and allocating precious marketing resources, this top-level forecast does not offer specific enough data. As government officials and utility managers plan for the arrival of grid-connected vehicles, they need to understand where those vehicles are going to be located and what the impact could be.

To understand where these vehicles will likely be sold, Pike Research created a detailed geographic forecast model using a variety of inputs including population and demographic trends, affinity towards electric vehicles, and automakers’ intended availability of vehicles. As a result of these, Pike Research forecasts that while California and New York will be the largest states for PEV sales, the largest cities do not necessarily correlate to the most sales. In fact, New York City and California cities dominate the top markets for PEVs, while other large population centers like Dallas, Philadelphia, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, and Washington DC fall short of the top markets for plug-in electric vehicles. Another key question many ask, is what happens when all these vehicles plug in? In the case of Southern California Edison’s service territory, which is expected to be the largest market for PEV sales over the next seven years, the maximum potential is a 498 MW load on the grid by 2017.

This Pike Research report provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market at the state and metropolitan statistical area levels. This report also includes forecasts for plug-in electric vehicle sales within selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2011 to 2017 at each geographic level, and analysis of major trends in the forecasts.

Key questions addressed:

Which states have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle ownership?

Which cities’ demographic characteristics will make them large markets for electric vehicles?

What is the size of the plug-in electric vehicle market over the next six years and how fast will the market grow?

Where will plug-in electric vehicle sales grow the fastest?

What will be the plug-in electric vehicle sales in your state?

How large will the market share of plug-in electric vehicles be in each state?

Which cities will see the largest number of plug-in electric vehicles in the next six years?

How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for?

What is the potential grid impact of these vehicles to utilities?