China is expected to have between 150 gigawatts and 230 GW installed capacity of wind power by 2020, according to a research report jointly released by the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, the Global Wind Energy Council and Greenpeace.
If the figure reaches the end of the higher, the huge capacity is equivalent to reducing 410 million tons of carbon dioxide emission or 150 million tons of coal consumption.
A more ambitious forecast by the publishers of the report – Greenpeace, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – is 230 gigawatts over the next 10 years.
That would be equal to 13 times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam and could cut 410 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, or 150 million tonnes of coal consumption, said Yang Ailun of Greenpeace China.
In a more optimistic forecast, GWEC itself predicts China’s wind power capacity could reach 253 gigawatts by 2020.
"China is at a crossroads," said Yang, head of the Climate and Energy Team of Greenpeace.
"It can choose between the dirty, dangerous world of coal and fossil fuels, or the new, clean future promised by wind. The answer is obvious."
China now depends on coal for nearly 70 percent of its energy consumption.
Experts see the growth of the wind turbines industry in China as a bright spot in the country’s efforts to curb growth in its world-leading greenhouse gas emissions.
China, which ranked second in the world in installed wind energy generating capacity in 2009, pledged last year to slow the growth in those emissions by reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent from 2005 levels by 2020.
That is essentially a vow of greater energy efficiency that would likely, however, see emissions continue to increase.
Officials have so far rejected suggestions that Beijing commit to emissions cuts and outside verification.
By the end of last year, China ranked the second in wind power output with wind power capacity of 25.8 GW following the U.S. that had 35.06 GW in total capacity, but it is expected to become the largest wind power generator by the year end, sources reported.
China added 13.8 GW of installed wind power facilities in 2009, an amount surging 124.3% year on year.
Li Junfeng, secretary general of the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, said that the rapid growth was principally due to strong market demand and the central government’s effective incentive policies.