Now the potential has been quantified: The market for batteries, supercapacitors and fuel cells targeting transportation and smart grid applications will more than double from $21.4 billion in 2010 to $44.4 billion in 2015, according to a new report from Lux Research.
Although this growth spells opportunity for corporations, investors and utilities, it’s not always clear where the hottest opportunities lie. In its report, titled "Emerging Technologies Power a $44 Billion Opportunity for Transportation and Grid," Lux Research analyzes the prospects for several technologies, including batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells in transportation and storage, distributed generation, and transmission and distribution technologies on the power grid.
"Policy-makers, auto manufacturers and the media have locked their attention on battery technologies for plug-in and electric vehicles," said Jacob E. Grose, an analyst for Lux Research, and the report’s lead author. "But in fact e-bikes and scooters will drive the biggest growth for these batteries in the next five years."
In analyzing prospects for each technology, Lux Research combined rigorous bottom-up and top down analysis, and conducted interviews with hundreds of companies developing technologies for transportation and the power grid. Among the report’s key findings:
Big opportunities in transportation ride on two wheels, not four. Electric vehicles storage technology markets will nearly double from $7.7 billion in 2010 to $14.5 billion in 2015, a CAGR of 13.5%. Surprisingly, markets for electronic bike (e-bike) and scooter batteries will lead the charge, growing from $6.4 billion this year to $10.9 billion in 2015, a CAGR of 11%.
Lead-acid batteries dominate transportation markets, but Li-ion technology is rapidly growing. Lead-acid batteries will drive 93% of China’s e-bikes in 2010, and dominate the micro-hybrid automotive market. However, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in e-bikes are growing fast, and have gained further momentum from plug-in and electric vehicles. The upshot: With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% through 2015, Li-ion battery markets are growing almost three times faster than those for lead-acid.
In the power grid segment, the smart plays are in the smart grid. Markets for emerging technologies in the power grid will skyrocket from $13.7 billion in 2010 to $30 billion in 2015, a CAGR of 17%. Here the largest market is the smart-grid, which will grow at an explosive CAGR of 23%, from $5.4 billion this year to $15.8 billion in 2015.
"Emerging Technologies Power a $44 Billion Opportunity for Transportation and Grid," is part of the Lux Alternative Power and Energy Storage Intelligence service. Clients subscribing to this service receive ongoing research on market and technology trends, continuous technology scouting reports and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research Power Journal, and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts.
Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients.