The booming worldwide market for wind energy capacity is expected to grow to 447 Gigawatts (GW) within five years, almost three times its present level. Within ten years it could expand to nearly 1,000 GW and meet 8.4% of the world’s electricity demand.
These are the headline conclusions from the latest annual analysis of the global wind power market by the Danish consultancy, BTM Consult. Among the main findings of “World Market Update 2009”, published today, are:
• Record new wind power capacity of 38 GW, despite the economic crisis
• Three Chinese wind turbines suppliers now in the Top 10 list of manufacturers
• China became the No. 1 market in the world, with 13.75 GW of new capacity
• Market value will grow from US$75 billion in 2010 to US$124 billion in 2014
• Technology: direct drive turbines now account for 14 % of the world’s supply
• Wind power will deliver 1.6 % of the world’s electricity in 2010
• By 2019, ten years away, wind power could meet 8.4 % of the world’s consumption of electricity
The analysis by BTM Consult shows that the wind energy industry experienced another excellent year in 2009. With 38,103 Megawatts (MW) of new wind farm installations, total installed capacity grew to around 160,000 MW. This represented a year-on-year growth rate of 35% and an increase in cumulative installations of 31%. Global wind power capacity has now grown by an annual average of 36% over the past five years.
China emerged as by far and away the most successful market, installing 13,750 MW, the highest volume ever by one country in a single year. The United States also continued its recent hectic pace, with almost 10,000 MW of new capacity. Europe saw 10,738 MW installed, with Spain and Germany the best performers, although its overall proportion of global wind energy capacity has now fallen below 50%.
The development of offshore wind parks pushed forward more positively, with 689 MW of new capacity commissioned in the sea. The expectation is that the offshore sector will now deliver an increasing proportion of global wind power.
Among suppliers of wind turbines, China now dominates the market, with three Chinese manufacturers – Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang – now in BTM Consult’s Top 10 listing. The top spot in the chart was retained by Danish manufacturer Vestas and the US supplier GE Energy with nearly the same supply.
Looking forward, BTM projects an average growth rate of 13.5% over the next five years, resulting in a total global capacity of 447 GW by 2014. In the second, less predictable five year period up to 2019, the expectation is for an average growth rate of 12.1 % and a cumulative capacity at the end of about 1,000 GW. By then, based on the International Energy Agency’s prediction of overall demand, wind power will be supplying 8.4% of the world’s electricity. A major driving force for the wind power market throughout this period will be continued strong growth across Asia, especially in China.
“World Market Update 2009” contains detailed analysis of both the demand and supply side of the wind power industry in 2009, individual country market assessments, details of incentives around the world and numerous charts and tables. The special topic chapter in this year’s report looks at the aftermath of the Copenhagen climate change conference and its likely effect on the wind power market.
This is the latest in the series of annual reports produced by BTM Consult since 1995.
It did not give their previous ranking, but Sinovel and Goldwind joined the Top-10 in 2008, while Dongfang had been among the Top-15 that year.
Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems (VWS.CO) retained its position as the world’s leading wind turbine manufacturer with a 12.5 percent market share, but U.S. conglomerate GE (GE.N) was virtually tied with Vestas with a 12.4 percent share, BTM said.
Germany’s Enercon was fourth, Spain’s Gamesa (GAM.MC) sixth, India’s Suzlon (SUZL.BO) eighth, Germany’s Siemens (SIEGn.DE) ninth and German REpower (RPWGn.DE:) No. 10.
TOP-10 WIND TURBINES SUPPLIERS IN 2009 (ACCORDING TO BTM):
Rank Company Country Percentage of global market
1) Vestas Denmark 12.5
2) GE U.S. 12.4
3) Sinovel China 9.2
4) Enercon Germany 8.5
5) Goldwind China 7.2
6) Gamesa Spain 6.7
7) Dongfang China 6.5
8) Suzlon India 6.4
9) Siemens Germany 5.9
10) RePower Germany 3.4
BTM Consult’s market report followed a similar ranking list earlier this month from rival Danish consultancy MAKE, which also put Vestas first, Sinovel third and Goldwind fifth.