“At face value it appears that the US market could witness its second-best growth year to date; however, if you remove spill-over build originally meant for completion in 2008, 2009 market activations will probably be closer to half of 2008 levels,” according to Senior Wind Analyst Matthew Kaplan.
Still, 2009 build-out has surpassed industry expectations. In the first quarter of this year, most market participants expected a significant drop in 2009 activations to well less than 6 GW based on frozen financial markets. However, a combination of projects planned for 2008 spilling over into 2009 and construction activity by developers eager to qualify for American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 2009 (ARRA) provisions, points to US market growth nearing approximately 8 GW in 2009, according to Kaplan.
Despite this strong signal of growth, challenges for the US wind market remain. Falling electricity demand, unprofitable merchant wind prices, and declining fixed power purchase agreement prices have vexed project developers looking for electricity off-take. However, ARRA provisions and longer-term policy drivers, including RPS incentives, may help counter these short-term economic inhibitors, according to EER.
5 GW of wind projects are currently under construction—many of which will be activated in 2010. While project construction is picking up to obtain grant funding, delays due to the financial crisis indicate 2010 wind activations are more likely to remain stagnant compared with 2009. However, construction may surge so that projects meet grant requirements.
“The 2010 picture is not yet complete. On one hand, the project development environment continues to face serious bottlenecks, but on the other hand, the ARRA promises the wind industry more incentives than it has ever seen before,” says Kaplan.
Emerging Energy Research is the leading provider of analysis on clean and renewable energy markets. With offices in Cambridge, Massachusetts and Barcelona, Spain, EER provides strategic advice to over 1,000 stakeholders across the emerging energy industry, providing market research, support, and analysis to executives and decision-makers at utilities, developers, independent power producers, technology promoters, manufacturers, and investment companies.