Este informe es una de las publicaciones más respetadas y toda una autoridad en el campo económico de la energía, siendo a menudo citada como referencia por medios de comunicación, instituciones docentes, gobiernos y compañías energéticas.
Análisis del pasado, presente y futuro energético
El BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 analiza la evolución del mercado energético durante los últimos años y las proyecciones de futuro, aportando una visión de la situación actual y apuntado respuestas a los interrogantes energéticos del momento, según BP, que ya ha abandonado sus veleidades ecológicas.
El consumo mundial de petróleo en 2008 descendió un 0,6%, el de gas natural creció un 2,5%, el consumo de carbón aumentó en un 3,1% y el consumo mundial de energía primaria aumentó un 1,4% en 2008.
In Turbulent Year Developing World Leapfrogs Sluggish OECD in Demand for Energy
In a climate of unprecedented turbulence, global energy markets followed the same extreme pattern as the world economy in general during 2008.
Prices first rose to record highs as economic growth boomed in the first half of the year. Then they collapsed as the global economy abruptly reversed and plunged into recession in the wake of the financial crisis.
But the year was also remarkable for another reason – less dramatic but, arguably, just as profound in its implications for the long term. For the first time ever, according to the 2009 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the developing world led by China leapfrogged OECD nations in the consumption of primary energy.
At the launch of the Review in London, BP chief executive Tony Hayward said: "The centre of gravity of the global energy markets has tilted sharply and irreversibly towards the emerging nations of the world, especially China.
"This is not a temporary phenomenon but one that I believe will only increase still more over time. It will continue to affect prices and bring with it new challenges over economic growth, energy security and climate change.
"This shift will bring volatility in the short term," Hayward warned. "But I have no doubt that the diversity and flexibility of modern energy markets will continue to ensure that energy supplies continue to reach consumers efficiently and without interruption."
BP chief economist Christof Ruehl said that in spite of the dramatic gyrations in the world economy and energy prices, the Review data showed how well those markets had served energy security during the year. "Allowing markets to continue to function freely and without interference remains key to managing the inevitable ups and downs in prices as we go forward," he said.
The Review reports remaining proved oil reserves of 1,258 billion barrels, excluding Canadian oil sands – enough for 42 years at 2008 production rates. On the same basis, reserves of gas are sufficient for 60 years and coal for 122 years.
Reflecting the extremes of the world economy across 2008 – strong growth followed by sharp decline – the Review shows that overall primary energy consumption nudged up just 1.4 per cent, the smallest rise since 2001. China alone accounted for almost three quarters of the rise, with most of the balance coming from the wider Asia-Pacific region.
In the developed world, energy consumption fell by 1.3 per cent, with demand in the USA seeing the steepest single year decline since 1982, a drop of 2.8 per cent.
Oil: In 2008 the average price of dated Brent crude oil rose to $97.26 a barrel – 34 per cent up on the previous year and the seventh consecutive annual rise. However, the annual average masked huge variations across 2008. The price began the year at just below $100 a barrel, peaked at $144 in early July and fell dramatically to less than $40 at year-end – the fall a consequence of higher OPEC production and rapid slow-downs in consumption in the second half.
Over the year, global oil consumption fell by 0.6 per cent, or 420,000 barrels a day; the first decline since 1993 and the largest drop for 27 years. This included a steep fall in demand of 1.5 million barrels a day from the developed OECD countries – their third consecutive year of decline – and slower growth in demand (up just 1.1 million barrels a day) from outside the OECD.
Despite overall lower demand, average oil production rose 0.4 per cent, or 380,000 barrels a day, driven largely by OPEC production increases. Despite cuts late in the year, average OPEC oil output actually rose by almost 1 million barrels a day, or 2.7 per cent. This all came from the Middle East with daily production from Saudi Arabia up 400,000 barrels and from Iraq up 280,000 barrels.
Production outside OPEC recorded the steepest decline since 1992, falling by 1.4 per cent, or 601,000 barrels a day, with output from the OECD countries falling 4 per cent, or 750,000 barrels a day, driven by declines in North America and Europe. The single largest decline came from Mexico, where production fell 310,000 barrels a day. Russian production fell for the first time since 1998, by 90,000 barrels a day. UK oil production fell 94,000 barrels a day, or 6.3 per cent, to the lowest level for 30 years.
Gas: Gas consumption grew by 2.5 per cent, below the 10-year average. Consumption in the USA grew by 0.6 per cent as spot prices remained well below oil prices. Elsewhere, only the Middle East saw above-average growth, driven by strong domestic demand. Oil-indexed gas prices in OECD Europe and Asia-Pacific rose more rapidly which, coupled with the recessionary impact, meant that consumption growth was below average.
The largest incremental growth in world gas demand was from China, where consumption rose 15.8 per cent. The UK’s gas consumption grew by 3 per cent, with gas now supplying 39.9 per cent of the UK’s total primary energy – well above the global average of 24.1 per cent.
Globally, gas production rose 3.8 per cent, above the 10-year trend of 3 per cent. This was driven strongly by the USA which recorded its highest ever annual increase in gas production as strong activity in the development of unconventional gas resources raised output by 7.5 per cent – 10 times the 10-year average growth rate. The second highest increment was from Qatar as pipeline exports to UAE increased. Production rose in Europe overall as increases in Denmark, Netherlands and Norway more than offset falls in the UK and Germany.
Coal: For the sixth consecutive year coal remained the fastest growing fuel globally, even though its 3.1 per cent growth in consumption was below the 10-year trend. China, which accounts for fully 43 per cent of global coal demand, accounted for 85 per cent of this growth, with an increase of 6.8 per cent. Outside China however, global demand growth was weak, climbing only 0.6 per cent, reflecting the fact that coal prices in liberalised markets increased more than for any other fossil fuel. Coal use in the UK fell 7.6 per cent to the lowest level for a decade, in part due to fuel switching driven by CO2 prices in the EU emission trading scheme.
Other fuels: Nuclear output fell for the second consecutive year, by 0.7 per cent, led by a 10 per cent decline in Japanese output as its largest power station remained shut after a 2007 earthquake. Hydroelectric output continued its recent strong performance with growth of 2.8 per cent, above the 10 year average for the fourth time in the past five years. However, again, all of the global increase could be accounted for by growth in China – climbing by 20.3 per cent, nearly twice the country’s 10-year average rate. Hydroelectric generation outside China fell by 0.4 per cent.
Renewable energy again grew strongly albeit from a low base, with wind and solar generating-capacity growing 29.9 per cent and 69 per cent respectively, both above their 10-year average rate. The USA’s wind power generating capacity grew by 49.5 per cent, overtaking Germany to have the largest installed wind generating capacity in the world. UK wind generating capacity grew 36.3 per cent to 3.3 GW; still, however, accounting for less than 3 per cent of global installed capacity.
Renewable energy includes energy derived from natural processes that do not involve the consumption of exhaustible resources such as fossil fuels and uranium.
Hydropower, wind and wave power, solar and geothermal energy and combustible renewables and renewable waste (landfill gas, waste incineration, solid biomass and liquid biofuels) are the constituents of renewable energy.
Large-scale hydro power generation and non-commercial combustible renewables and renewable waste are sometimes excluded from this definition, leaving small-scale hydro, wind and wave power, solar and geothermal energy and modern biomass energy, including ethanol, as more narrowly defined renewable energy.
The definition of Primary Energy in the Statistical Review confines itself to traded fuels (commercial renewables). Among fuels such as combustible renewables and renewable waste, only ethanol is included in the Statistical Review, because other sources of bioenergy are not reliably documented. Geothermal, wind and solar forms of renewable energy are better documented, but for these we only include data on installed capacity. The energy produced – either in the form of electricity or heat – is not included in the Primary Energy table.
Despite high growth rates, renewable energy still represents only a small part of today’s global energy picture. Geothermal, wind and solar electricity generation combined, is estimated to account for approximately 1.5% of global electricity generation.
At the country level, however, these sources are playing an increasingly important role in some countries, and they make significant contributions to growth in electricity generation. For example, wind power generation has a significant share in total electricity generation in Denmark (around 20%), Spain (around 11%) and Germany (around 7%); geothermal sources account for approximately one quarter of total electricity generated in El Salvador and one fifth of all electricity in the Philippines, Kenya, and in Iceland.
The global renewable energy industry continued to expand rapidly in 2008, with growth rates accelerating across all the technologies. Traditionally Europe and Japan have been the leaders in renewable development, on the back of generous government incentives, but now the US and China have joined in with significant investments in wind capacity in 2008. The renewable energy industry is rapidly gaining importance in terms of contribution to the economic activity and employment.
Data on renewable energy are not included in the published BP Statistical Review of World Energy because of problems with the completeness, timeliness and quality of the data. However, the data on installed capacity for geothermal, wind and solar power generation and data on global ethanol production are published on the Statistical Review internet site. Data on hydropower generation are excluded from the renewables section of the BP statistical Review. They are covered in a separate section in the published version.
The Statistical Review internet site also includes links to relevant external internet sources and should help illustrate some of the key trends in renewable energy.
Geothermal remained the slowest growing renewable energy in 2008. Geothermal capacity grew by 4.2% (422 MW) in 2008, to reach 10.4 GW. Growth was above the trend rate of growth since 2000 (3.1% pa). Geothermal capacity has now been overtaken by solar power capacity, but geothermal power runs at a much higher load factor solar (its source is continuous rather than intermittent), so geothermal still produces significantly more electricity than solar.
The increase in capacity in 2008 was widely dispersed, with new plants coming on stream in the US, Iceland, Indonesia, New Zealand, Turkey and Kenya. The US has the largest geothermal capacity, now standing at 3 GW (28.6% of the world total), followed by the Philippines (2GW), Mexico and Indonesia (1 GW each).
Solar electricity generating capacity has on average doubled every two years since 1998
Solar power generating capacity grew 69% in 2008, the fastest rate of growth in our database which goes back to 1996. Total capacity grew by 5.5 GW to reach 13.4 GW. Growth averaged 42% pa over the past 10 years – at that rate solar capacity doubles every two years.
Growth in 2008 was highly concentrated – Spain (2.7 GW) and Germany (1.5 GW) together accounted for more than 75% of the growth, due to continued strong government support for solar power in those markets.
In terms of installed capacity Germany still leads (5.5 GW, 40.9% share of world total), but Spain (3.3 GW, 24.5%) has now overtaken both Japan (2.1 GW, 16.0%), and the US (1.2 GW, 8.7%). On the supply side, the rapid expansion of polysilicon supply helped ease the shortage of raw material for solar PV production. China and Taiwan continued to expand their PV cell manufacturing aggressively, increasing their share of global cell production.
The US and China lead the growth of wind power capacity
Wind power generating capacity growth accelerated to 30% in 2008, with capacity increasing by a record 28 GW to reach 122 GW by the end of 2008. This was the fifth consecutive year of accelerating growth. The trend rate of capacity growth over the past 10 years is just over 28% pa. The capacity in place at the end of 2008 is estimated to produce more than 250 TWh of electricity per annum.
In 2008, the US added the most new capacity (8.4 GW, 49.5% growth), while China recorded the fastest growth rate and the second highest volume increment (6.2 GW, 106.3% growth). The US and China together accounted for more than half of the total additions to wind capacity in 2008. The US now has the largest wind power capacity (25.2 GW, 20.7% of the world total capacity), having overtaken Germany (23.9 GW, 19.6% share).
Led by Germany and Spain, Europe remains the largest market for wind generation in terms of total capacity (66 GW, or 54% of the world total). The share of non-OECD generating capacity has doubled since 2002, reaching 22% in 2008. Non-OECD growth has been driven by China and India, adding a combined capacity of 8 GW, or 85% of total new non-OECD capacity.
Wind is becoming an important contributor to European electricity generation. In Denmark wind power provides 20% of power generation. Wind power in Spain has a penetration of 10.7%, larger than hydroelectric generation at 7.1%. In Germany, wind penetration stands at around 7%, almost double the share of hydro. Wind has a much smaller share in the US – it contributes around 2% of total power capacity and about 1% of power generation. But in 2008 wind power was the only significant source of power generation growth in the US, and wind now accounts for more power generation than oil-fired power plants.
Government support remains the single most important factor behind the fast growth of wind generation. Future growth is also dependent on further technological advances in the offshore wind segment. In 2008 only 344 MW of the new wind capacity installed was offshore (1.2% of total capacity added), but there are a number of large offshore projects in development for construction in the next few years.
The growing share of wind power in the electricity mix also presents unique operational challenges to grid operators. Because of the unreliability of wind power (reflected in a low, ~25% utilisation factor), adding more wind generation capacity to the grid increases the need to boost the percentage of overall plant capacity set aside to provide ancillary services. In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council narrowly missed a blackout in February 2008 as wind production dropped sharply from 2,000 MW to 300 MW, just as the evening peak demand was approaching.
The BP Statistical Review of World Energy is available online at www.bp.com/statisticalreview. The website contains all the tables and charts found in the printed edition plus some additional data, an energy charting tool and a conversion calculator.