If current growth rates are maintained, in 2020 up to 1400 TWh of electricity could be generated from renewable sources, the report concludes. This would account for approximately 35-40% of overall electricity consumption in the EU, depending on the success of community policies on electricity efficiency, and would contribute significantly to the fulfilment of the 20% target for energy generation from renewables.
However, it also advises that some issues need to be resolved if the targets are to be met. Particular areas of focus include ensuring fair access to grids, substantial public R&D support, and the adaptation of current electricity systems to accommodate renewable electricity. The study highlights that cost reduction and accelerated implementation will depend on the production volume and not on time.
The JRC has produced the annual Renewable Energy Snapshots since 2007 to give an up-to-date picture of the EU’s progress towards the binding target of 20% for energy generation from renewable sources by 2020.
In 2009, and in absolute terms, about 19.9% (608 TWh) of Europe’s total electricity consumption (3042 TWh) came from renewable energy sources. Hydro power contributed with the largest share (11.6%), followed by wind turbines (4.2%), biomass (3.5%), and solarpower (0.4%).
With regards to the new capacity constructed that same year (27.5 GW), among the renewable sources, 37.1% was wind power, 21% photovoltaics (PV), 2.1% biomass, 1.4% hydro and 0.4% concentrated solar power, whereas the rest were gas fired power stations (24%), coal fired power stations (8.7%), oil (2.1%), waste incineration (1.6%) and nuclear (1.6%) (see figure1).
As not all installed technologies operate continuously 24 hours a day, figure 2 shows the expected yearly energy output (TWh) from the new capacity. The new gas-fired electricity plants will deliver yearly 28 TWh, followed by wind and PV with 20 TWh and 5.6 TWh, respectively.
If current growth rates are maintained, in 2020 up to 1400 TWh of electricity could be generated from renewable sources, the report concludes. This would account for approximately 35-40% of overall electricity consumption in the EU, depending on the success of community policies on electricity efficiency, and would contribute significantly to the fulfilment of the 20% target for energy generation from renewables.
However, it also advises that some issues need to be resolved if the targets are to be met. Particular areas of focus include ensuring fair access to grids, substantial public R&D support, and the adaptation of current electricity systems to accommodate renewable electricity. The study highlights that cost reduction and accelerated implementation will depend on the production volume and not on time.
Summary of 2010 snapshot findings
Wind energy: with more than 74 GW of total installed capacity in 2009, it has already exceeded the 2010 white paper target of 40 GW by more than 80%. The European Wind Association’s new target aims for 230 GW of installed capacity (40 GW wind farm offshore) by 2020, capable of providing about 20% of Europe’s electricity demand.
In 2009, 38 GW of new wind turbines capacity went into operation bringing the world wide total installed wind energy capacity to 160 GW . The total value of new generation equipment installed in 2008 is estimated to be about € 50 billion. The United States kept its first place in overall installed capacity, with 35.2 GW followed by China (26 GW), which for the second year in a rowagain more than doubled its total installations, Germany (25.7 GW) and Spain (19.1 GW). China more than doubled its total installations in 2008, bringing its overall wind capacity to 12.2 GW and moved ahead of India with 9.6 MW. The total installed wind capacity at the end of 2009 can produce about 340 TWh of electricity or 2% of the global electricity demand.
The European Union Member States added 10,163 MW and reached a total installed capacity of 74,767 MW. Other European countries and Turkey added 418 MW, bringing the total wind farm installations in Europe and Turkey to 76,152 MW.
Seven countries added capacities of more than 1 GW in 2009: China (13.8 GW), United States of America (9.9 GW), Spain (2,460 MW), Germany (1,920 MW), India (1,340 MW), France (1,120 and Italy (1,110 MW). Another four countries added 500 MW or more: Canada (950 MW), United Kingdom (897 MW), Portugal (673 MW) and Sweden (512 MW).
In 2008 Europe (8.9 GW), North America (8.9 GW) and Asia (8.6 GW) had about equal market shares. This changed and for the first time Asia experienced the strongest increase in installed wind power capacity and was the biggest market with 15.9 GW, mainly due to the massive increase of Chinese installation followed by North America (10.9 GW) and Europe (8.4 GW).
The addition of 15.9 GW in 2009 increased the continent’s total capacity by 65% to over 40 GW. In 2009, the European Union’s wind capacity grew by 15.7 %, and can now produce approximately 165 TWh of electricity in an average wind year, equal to 5.5% of the total 2009 EU 27 electricity consumption. The German and Spanish markets still represent 43% of the EU market, but there is a continuous trend towards more diversification The general trend shows that the wind energy sector is broadening its market base and more and more countries are increasing the installation of wind energy capacities.
In 2009 a total of 82 countries used wind energy on a commercial basis and 49 out of them increased their installations in that year. The European market accounted for about 27% of the total new capacity, a significant percentage decrease from the 75% in 2004.
In 2009 454 MW of offshore wind capacity were added increasing the total installed capacity to almost 2 GW or 1.2% of the total wind capacity worldwide.
3 of the top 10 wind turbines manufacturers are from the People’s Republic of China and there are more than 70 companies involved in wind equipment manufacturing. So far most of the Chinese wind turbines are only sold inside China, but a number of players have already announced to expand 39 outside China in the future.
The major reasons is the overcapacity and fierce competition within the domestic market where the total quoted manufacturing capacity of the leading three companies in China exceeds 12 GW or more than 90% of the 2009 installations. It is obvious, that the vision of the Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is not limited to sell wind turbines overseas, but to establish manufacturing strongholds in the big markets and offer wind farm financing and operation. This strategy is backed by the Chinese government in order to accelerate the maturing of the domestic industry and bring down the costs for wind electricity in China.
At the end of 2009 the Renewable Energy Law from 2006 was amended and the renewable energy target for 2020 was increased from the previous 9% to 15%. The 30 MW wind target for 2020, set in 2006, will be surpassed in 2010 and the discussions for the "10-Year Plan for Green Energy Future" point towards a much higher 100 – 150 GW target.
In 2009 the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) has increased its 2020 target from 180 GW installed capacity in 2020 to 230 GW including 40 GW offshore. This cumulative installed capacity would be able to produce some 600 TWh of electricity or 14 to 18% of the European Union’s expected electricity demand in 2020.
According to the World Wind Energy Association, the sector provided 550,000 direct and indirect jobs and has more than doubled its employment figures within the last four years. In 2012 the Association expects that the wind industry will provide more than 1 million jobs world wide.
Biomass: if current growth continues, electricity output from biomass could double from 2008 to 2010 (from 108 TWh to 200 TWh). However, other energy uses such as heat and transport fuels compete for this particular source, which could potentially hinder the development of bioelectricity. Being storable for use on demand increases its importance as a source of electricity.
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP): installed capacity is still relatively small in Europe: 0.430 GW in May 2010, about 0.5% of the total, but is steadily increasing. An estimated 30 GW could be installed by 2020 if the European Solar Industry Initiative ESII is realised. Most CSP projects currently under construction are located in Spain.
Solar thermal electric power plants are generating electricity by converting concentrated solar energy to heat, which is converted to electricity in a conventional thermal power plant. The two major concepts used today are Parabolic Trough power plants and Power Towers. Other concepts including the Dish Design with a Stirling engine are researched as well, but so far no commercial plant has been realised.
After more than 15 years, the first new major capacities of Concentrated Solar Thermal Electricity Plants came online with Nevada One (64 MW18, USA) and the PS 10 plant (11 MW, Spain) in the first half of 2007. In Spain the Royal Decree 661/2007 dated 25 March 2007 is a major driving force for the current CSP plant constructions and the ambitious expansion plans. The guaranteed feed-in tariff is 0.269 €/kWh for 25 years (the previous RD 436/2004 had a fix at 0.215 €/kWh). In November 2009 an annual cap of 500 MW for new installations was fixed for 2010 to 2013.
At the end of May 2010 CSP plants with a cumulative capacity of about 867 MW were in commercial operation and about 1,170 MW under construction with a planned start of commercial operation until 2012. In addition another 8 GW are in an advanced planning stage to be realised until 2015.
The current average investment costs for the solar part are given in various projects at around € 4/W. Depending whether the plant has a backup in the form of a fossil fired gas turbine and/or a thermal storage the project costs can increase up to € 14/W.
Most of the CSP projects currently under construction are located in Spain. A total of 2.4 GW of capacity is already approved for feed-in incentives and are within the new imposed 500 MW annual cap until 2013. In total projects with a total capacity of 15 GW have applied for interconnection. This is in line with the European Solar Industry Initiative, which aims at a cumulative installed CSP capacity of 30 GW in Europe out of which 19 GW would be in Spain. More than 100 projects are currently in the planning phase mainly in Spain, North Africa and the USA.
In the US, more than 4.5 GW of CSP plants are currently under power purchase agreement contracts and almost 10 GW are in the planning stage. The different contracts specify when the projects have to start delivering electricity between 2010 and 2014. In December 2009 the World Bank’s Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Trust Fund Committee endorsed a CTD resource envelope for projects and programmes in five countries in the Middle East and North Africa to implement CSP.
The budget envelope proposes CTF co-financing of $ 750 million (€ 600 million19), which should mobilize an additional $ 4.85 billion (€ 3.88 billion) from other sources and help to install more than 1.1 GW of CSP by 2020.
Solar Photovoltaic: since 2003, the total installed capacity has doubled each year. In 2009 it reached 16 GW, which represents 2% of the overall capacity. The growth will continue, as for 2010, installations of up to 10 GW are expected. Solar photovoltaic has also exceeded the capacity predictions formulated by in the EU white paper on renewable sources of energy.
Production data for the global cell production20 in 2009 vary between 10.5 GW and 12 GW. This is again an increase of 40% to 50% compared to 2008. The significant uncertainty in the data for 2009 is due to difficult market situation, which was characterised by a declining market environment in the first half of 2009 and an exceptional boom in the second half of 2009.
Other sources of power: technologies such as geothermal, tidal and wave power are still at the R&D stage, so they have not yet been included in the Renewable Energy Snapshots. Yet, they are likely to be introduced to the market within the next decade. As far as hydro generation is concerned, no major increase is expected, as most of the resources are already in use. However, pumped hydro will play an increasingly important role as in a storage capacity for the other renewable energy resources.
re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/refsys/pdf/Snapshots_EUR_2010i.pdf
