Price declines and solar energy records mark the first week of March in European electricity markets.
In the first week of March, prices declined in European electricity markets. Germany, France and Italy broke all?time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in March, while wind energy production increased in Germany and the Iberian Peninsula. Electricity demand decreased in most markets and fuel prices, such as gas and CO2, fell, contributing to lower electricity market prices.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of March 3, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the German, French and Italian markets compared to the previous week. The German market showed the largest increase, 127%, followed by a 65% increase in the Italian market. The French market registered the smallest increase, 23%, and maintained its upward trend for the third week. In contrast, the Iberian markets registered declines of 16% in Spain and 23% in Portugal. In Spain, solar photovoltaic energy production fell for the second consecutive week.
In the first week of March, the Italian, French and German markets broke all?time records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in March. On March 4, the Italian market generated 109 GWh with photovoltaic energy and, one day later, the French market produced 113 GWh using this technology. The German market registered production records each day of the week, reaching on Thursday, March 6, the highest value of generation with this technology for a March month in history, with 273 GWh.
In the second week of March, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar energy production will increase in the Spanish market. On the contrary, in the German and Italian markets, production with this technology will decrease.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the first week of March, wind energy production increased in the German and Iberian markets compared to the previous week. The Spanish market registered the largest rise, 32%, and maintained its increases for the fourth consecutive week. The German market showed the smallest increase, 7.3%, while the Portuguese market rose for the second week, this time by 26%. The exceptions were the Italian and French markets, where wind energy production fell by 13% and 23%, respectively.
In the week of March 10, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will increase in Italy, while the Spanish, Portuguese, German and French markets will register decreases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the first week of March, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The market of the Netherlands registered the largest drop, 16%, while Portugal had the smallest decrease, 1.0%. The Italian, Belgian, German, French and British markets registered declines ranging from 3.3% in Italy to 7.6% in Great Britain. Demand declined for the third consecutive week in Belgium, Germany and Great Britain, while in France and Portugal it fell for the fourth and sixth week, respectively. In Italy, demand maintained the declines for the second consecutive week. Spain was the exception, with increases for the second week, this time of 1.1%.
Average temperatures exceeded those of the previous week in a large part of Europe, which favored lower demand in most of these markets. In Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany, France, Belgium and Great Britain, average temperatures rose between 1.0 °C in Portugal and 2.9 °C in Great Britain. In contrast, Italy registered lower average temperatures than the previous week, with a 0.2 °C decrease.
In the week of March 10, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the markets of France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Great Britain and the Netherlands. However, demand will decrease in the Italian and German markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of March, average prices of the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest decline, 5.8%, while the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries reached the largest percentage price drop, 56%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 7.2% in the IPEX market of Italy and 28% in the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal.
In the week of March 3, weekly averages were below €95/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets, whose averages were €107.29/MWh and €123.11/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Nordic market reached the lowest weekly average, €17.44/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €65.88/MWh in the Spanish and Portuguese markets to €93.50/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
Regarding daily prices, on March 5, the Nordic market reached a price of €3.92/MWh, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. Furthermore, this was the lowest price since November 2, 2024, in the Nordic market. On Saturday, March 8, the Iberian market price was €15.22/MWh, the lowest since November 25, 2024. In the case of the Italian market, on March 8, it registered a price of €105.78/MWh, which was the lowest in this market since December 24, 2024.
In the week of March 3, the decline in the weekly price of gas and CO2 emission allowances, as well as the drop in demand in most analyzed markets, led to lower prices in European electricity markets. In addition, wind energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany, while solar energy production grew in Germany, France and Italy. These increases also contributed to price declines in these markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of March, prices will increase in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in electricity demand and the decrease in wind energy production in most analyzed markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
On Monday, March 3, the settlement price of Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market decreased by 2.1% from the last session of the previous week. Still, on that day, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $71.62/bbl. Prices continued to decline until March 5. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $69.30/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since September 11, 2024. Subsequently, prices began to recover. However, on Friday, March 7, the settlement price was $70.36/bbl, still 3.9% lower than the previous Friday.
In the first week of March, OPEC+ plans to gradually reverse its voluntary production cuts starting in April pushed Brent oil futures prices lower. In addition, concerns about the effects of US tariffs on the evolution of global oil demand continued to exert their downward influence on prices. However, the US intentions to reduce Iranian oil exports contributed to the recovery in prices at the end of the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €45.21/MWh, on Monday, March 3. Subsequently, prices declined until Thursday, March 6. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €38.24/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since September 28, 2024. On Friday, March 7, there was a 4.5% increase compared to the previous day, but the settlement price remained below €40/MWh. This price was €39.97/MWh, still 9.8% lower than the previous Friday.
Milder temperatures and the possibility of less stringent storage targets for next winter contributed to the decline in TFF gas futures prices in the first week of March. This price decline also responds to a certain speculative component, with profit taking after the bull run of the last few months in the face of a possible restitution of Russian gas flow through Ukraine due to a potential end or decrease of tension in the war of Ukraine.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, March 3, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €71.55/t. However, in the remaining sessions of the first week of March, settlement prices were below €70/t. On Thursday, March 6, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €67.32/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since December 19, 2024. On Friday, March 7, the settlement price increased by 1.9% compared to the previous day, reaching a value of €68.63/t. This price was still 3.3% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
Next Thursday, March 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 53rd webinar in its monthly webinar series. This webinar will feature speakers from EY for the fifth consecutive year. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar will analyze the key milestones for 2025 in the energy sector, the regulation and prospects of energy storage and capacity markets, the financing of renewable energy projects, the importance of PPA and self?consumption, as well as key aspects for portfolio valuation.
