In the last week of February, weekly prices in most major European electricity markets were above €100/MWh. In almost all of them, the weekly average was higher than the previous week, although the increases did not exceed 12%. Spain, Portugal and France registered the highest photovoltaic energy production for a February day and wind energy production increased in most markets. Electricity demand decreased in most markets. Gas, CO2 and Brent futures reached the lowest settlement price since December.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of February 24, solar photovoltaic energy production increased for the second consecutive week in the Portuguese and French markets, with increases of 9.5% and 26% respectively. In contrast, in the Italian, Spanish and German markets, photovoltaic energy production decreased after increases in the previous week. The Italian market registered the smallest drop, 3.5%, while in the Spanish market it fell by 15% and in the German market by 29%.
In the last week of February, the Spanish, Portuguese and French markets broke historical records for production with solar photovoltaic energy for a February day. On the 26th, the Spanish and Portuguese markets generated 134 GWh and 20 GWh, respectively, with photovoltaic energy. Later, on Friday, February 28, the French market produced 89 GWh with this technology. On the same day, the Italian market reached a production of 78 GWh, which is the second highest for February in history, after the production registered the previous Friday, February 21.
In the week of March 3, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar energy production will increase in the markets of Germany and Spain. On the contrary, in the Italian market, production with this technology will continue to decline.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the last week of February, wind energy production increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 240%, after three weeks of declines. In the French, Portuguese and Spanish markets, wind energy generation rose by 5.8%, 33% and 40%, respectively. The French market increased its production with this technology for the second consecutive week, while the Spanish market did so for the third week. The exception was the German market, where wind energy production fell by 38%.
In the first week of March, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will increase in Spain, Portugal and Germany, while it will decrease in France and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the week of February 24, electricity demand decreased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The Belgian and German markets registered the largest declines, with decreases of 5.4% and 3.5% respectively, while France had the smallest reduction, 0.7%. The Portuguese, Italian and British markets registered declines ranging from 1.0% in Portugal to 2.1% in Great Britain. In Belgium, Germany and Great Britain, demand declined for the second consecutive week, while in France and Portugal it fell for the third and fifth week, respectively. Spain and the Netherlands were the exception, registering increases of 1.3% and 6.9% in each case.
Less cold average temperatures in Belgium, Italy and Germany, with increases from the previous week of 0.3 °C, 2.6 °C and 2.7 °C, respectively, favored the decline in demand in these markets. In the Netherlands, average temperatures were also higher than the previous week, with a 1.2 °C increase. In contrast, France, Great Britain, Portugal and Spain registered lower average temperatures than the previous week, with decreases ranging from 0.9 °C in France and Great Britain to 2.2 °C in Spain.
In the first week of March, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will increase in the Dutch, German and Spanish markets. However, it will decrease in the Belgian, Italian, British, French and Portuguese markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of February, average prices in most major European electricity markets were higher than the previous week. The exceptions were the IPEX market of Italy and the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, with decreases of 11% and 26%, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices increased between 0.9% in the EPEX SPOT market of France and 12% in the EPEX SPOT market of Germany.
In the week of February 24, weekly averages were above €100/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic market and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, whose averages were €39.81/MWh and €91.68/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €132.70/MWh, despite the drop in prices in this market. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €101.12/MWh in the French market to €119.44/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, March 2, the Nordic market reached a price of €7.74/MWh, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. However, on Monday, March 3, the Nordic market price was even lower, €6.86/MWh. This was the lowest price since December 30, 2024, in the Nordic market. On the other hand, on Sunday, March 2, the Italian market registered a price of €106.26/MWh, which was the lowest price in this market since December 24, 2024.
In the week of February 24, the drop in solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Germany, as well as the decrease in wind energy production in the latter market, contributed to the price increase in these electricity markets. In addition, in the case of the Spanish market, electricity demand increased, which also happened in the Dutch market. However, the decrease in the weekly price of gas and CO2 emission allowances, as well as the increase in wind energy production and the decrease in demand in most analyzed markets, limited the price increases in European electricity markets. In the case of the Italian market, the significant rise in wind energy production contributed to the fall in prices in that market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of March, prices will fall in most major European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in solar and wind energy production in most analyzed markets. In addition, electricity demand will decrease in some markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $74.78/bbl, on Monday, February 24. Subsequently, prices declined until February 26. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $72.53/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since December 11, 2024. After this low, prices recovered, but fell again on Friday, February 28. On that day, the settlement price was $73.18/bbl, 1.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Concerns about global oil demand caused by US tariff policy, as well as the prospects of a gradual increase in Iraqi oil supply, continued to exert their downward influence on Brent oil futures prices in the fourth week of February. However, difficulties in the peace negotiations for Ukraine contributed to the recovery of prices from the low reached on February 26. The termination of Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela and new US sanctions on Iranian oil also exerted an upward influence on the prices of these futures.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €47.14/MWh, on Monday, February 24. In the fourth week of February, settlement prices continued the downward trend of the previous week until February 26. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €41.34/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since December 19, 2024. On Thursday, February 27, there was a rise of 8.7% compared to the previous day. As a result, in the last two sessions of the week, settlement prices exceeded €44/MWh. Even so, on Friday, February 28, the settlement price, €44.32/MWh, was 6.1% lower than the previous Friday.
Expectations of a peace agreement in Ukraine that would allow an increase in Russian gas supplies led to a fall in TTF gas futures prices in the first sessions of the fourth week of February. However, forecasts of low temperatures, which could lead to increased demand, and low European reserve levels contributed to the price increase. In addition, the lack of understanding between the US and Ukrainian presidents also exerted an upward influence on prices.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, February 24, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.66/t. In most sessions of the fourth week of February, these futures registered a downward trend. As a result, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €71.00/t, on Friday, February 28. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 3.9% lower than the previous Friday and the lowest since December 25, 2024.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for European energy markets, storage, financing and PPA
The 53rd webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on Thursday, March 13. For the fifth consecutive year, speakers from EY will participate in the event. On this occasion, the webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the key milestones for 2025 in the energy sector, the regulation and prospects of energy storage and capacity markets, the financing of renewable energy projects, the importance of PPA and self?consumption, as well as key aspects for portfolio valuation.
