The global offshore wind industry is projected to see a strong rebound in 2025, with 19 gigawatts (GW) added and total investments expected to reach $80 billion.
This follows a slowdown in 2024, when new installations declined to about 8 GW, down 2 GW from the previous year. The resurgence is primarily driven by a record number of lease auctions, with mainland China leading the growth, accounting for 65% of new capacity. With these additions, total offshore wind capacity will surpass the previous peak set in 2021 by about 1 GW.
Despite this progress, uncertainties remain regarding lease agreements, which are long-term contracts between wind developers and landowners. In 2024, a record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally, excluding mainland China. However, not all of this capacity has yet been awarded, as the offered capacity does not always convert into actual projects. The United States, for example, received no bids for its 3 GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction successfully awarded around 7 GW of the 13 GW offered. The number of lease auctions is expected to decline in 2025, with an estimated 30 to 40 GW available. Although lower than in 2024, this level is still significant and aligns with figures for 2021 and 2022.
Project delays had a notable impact on final investment decisions (FIDs) for offshore wind projects in 2024, leading to a decline in project approvals. In the US, only a few projects, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, have reached FID. The same trend is expected in Europe and Asia in 2025, although there could be some improvement in the US with projects such as US Wind, Southcoast Wind and New England Wind achieving offtake agreements and necessary approvals. However, the signing of offtake contracts for some projects has been postponed until March 2025.
Despite the slow pace of approvals, there were some positive developments in 2024. Several offshore wind projects moved forward, including Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1 GW Inch Cape project in the UK and Equinor’s 810 MW Empire Wind 1 in the US. Inch Cape reached financial close status in January 2025 after securing 15-year contracts for difference (CFDs) in both 2022 and 2024. These contracts provide revenue stability and boost investor confidence. Other projects that reached FID in 2024 include Iberdrola’s 315 MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795 MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924 MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the US.
In Europe, the UK, Poland and Germany are expected to lead a surge in FIDs in 2025, collectively reaching 9.5 GW. Poland in particular is expected to see several large-scale wind projects move forward, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III. This follows the recent FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 project in late January 2025.
With increasing offshore wind capacity and strategic investments, the sector is positioning itself for long-term growth. While challenges remain, including leasing uncertainties and project delays, the overall outlook for 2025 suggests strong progress in global offshore wind development.
