In the second week of February, prices in most major European electricity markets rose and weekly averages exceeded €140/MWh. However, in the Iberian market, the increase in wind energy production and the decrease in electricity demand favored lower prices. The French market broke the photovoltaic energy production record for a February day again. On Monday, February 10, TTF gas futures reached the highest value since early February 2023, above €58/MWh.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of February 10, solar photovoltaic energy production decreased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The downward trend followed two consecutive weeks of increases in weekly solar photovoltaic energy production. The German and Portuguese markets registered the largest drops in production with this technology compared to the first week of February, 38% and 17%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest decline, 0.4%.
The French market reached a historical record for solar photovoltaic energy production for a February day, despite a 2.8% drop in weekly production compared to the previous week. On Saturday, February 15, solar photovoltaic energy generation in France reached 79 GWh, surpassing the previous record of 68 GWh, registered on February 3.
In the week of February 17, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy production will increase in Spain, Germany and Italy, reversing the previous week’s downward trend.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the week of February 10, weekly wind energy production decreased in most major European markets, continuing the downward trend of the previous week. The French market registered the largest drop, 23%, while in Italy and Germany wind energy production fell by 13% and 10%, respectively. The exceptions were the markets of the Iberian Peninsula, where wind energy production increased by 40% in Portugal and 12% in Spain.
In the week of February 17, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will increase in France and Spain, but it will decrease in Germany, Italy and Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the week of February 10, the week?on?week evolution of electricity demand showed a heterogeneous trend in the main European electricity markets, in contrast to the mostly upward trend observed in the previous week. Great Britain topped the list of markets where demand increased, with a rise of 5.2%. It was followed by the Dutch market, where demand increased by 2.9%. The Belgian and German markets registered increases of 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively. In these four markets, demand increased for the second consecutive week. In contrast, the French, Spanish, Portuguese and Italian markets showed a drop in demand. The French market registered the largest drop, 5.5%, followed by the Spanish market, where the decline was 3.9%. In the Portuguese and Italian markets, demand fell by 2.2% and 0.7%, respectively. In the case of Portugal, the downward trend continued for the third consecutive week.
Variations in demand during the second week of February correlate with changes in average temperatures. In countries where demand increased, average temperatures fell between 0.3 °C and 2.2 °C. In countries with falling demand, average temperatures increased between 0.9 °C and 2.8 °C.
For the week of February 17, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will decrease in most major European markets, except in Portugal, where demand will increase.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the second week of February, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. Prices maintained an upward trend in the first days of the week, but they fell during the weekend, limiting the increase in weekly averages. The exception to the rises was the MIBEL market of Portugal and Spain, with declines of 4.7% and 4.8%, respectively. On the other hand, the EPEX SPOT market of France registered the smallest increase, 1.9%, while the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest percentage price increase, 72%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 3.6% in the IPEX market of Italy and 8.6% in the EPEX SPOT market of the Netherlands.
In the week of February 10, weekly averages were above €140/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets, whose averages were €88.82/MWh, €117.50/MWh and €117.64/MWh, respectively. The Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €159.40/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €140.73/MWh in the French market to €149.72/MWh in the Belgian market.
Regarding daily prices, in the second week of February, prices in most analyzed electricity markets remained above €115/MWh. The exceptions were the Nordic and Iberian markets. The Nordic market reached a price of €50.69/MWh on February 11, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. On the other hand, daily prices exceeded €170/MWh in some sessions of the second week of February in the German, Italian and Dutch markets. The German market registered the highest price of the week, €179.14/MWh, on Friday, February 14. On that day, the Nordic market reached a price of €142.00/MWh, the highest since December 2022 in that market.
In the week of February 10, the fall in solar and wind energy production, as well as the increase in demand in some markets such as the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the German, Belgian and Dutch markets, led to higher European electricity market prices. Furthermore, although gas prices were lower in the second half of the week, the weekly average price was slightly higher than the previous week. In contrast, lower demand and increased wind energy production on the Iberian Peninsula led to lower prices in the MIBEL market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the third week of February, prices will fall in European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in solar energy production and the decrease in demand in most markets. Increased wind energy production in France and Spain will also contribute to these declines.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $77.00/bbl, on Tuesday, February 11. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since the end of January. However, in the following sessions of the second week of the month, settlement prices declined. On Friday, February 14, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $74.74/bbl, which was 0.1% higher than the previous Friday.
Concerns about the impact of US tariff policies on global oil demand persisted during the second week of February. Additionally, US oil reserves increased. These factors exerted downward pressure on Brent oil futures prices. These prices were also affected by the announcement of potential peace negotiations for Ukraine, which could result in increased Russian oil supply.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they started the week continuing the upward trend of the previous week. On Monday, February 10, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €58.04/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price since February 7, 2023. In the rest of the sessions of the second week of February, prices declined. As a result, on Friday, February 14, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €50.68/MWh. This price was 9.0% lower than the previous Friday.
During the second week of February, higher temperatures and an increase in liquefied natural gas supply helped to slow the decline in European gas reserves. The proposal of Germany, France, and Italy to ease gas storage requirements for the next winter also exerted downward pressure on TTF gas futures prices. In addition, the possible end of the war in Ukraine would favor an increase in Russian gas supply, so the announcement of conversations between the Russian and US presidents also contributed to the price decline.
In the case of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €82.94/t, on Monday, February 10. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the highest price in the first half of February. Subsequently, prices declined until Thursday, February 13. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €78.05/t. In the last session of the week, there was a slight recovery. As a result, on Friday, February 14, the settlement price was €79.75/t, still 3.1% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and batteries in Europe
On Thursday, February 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 52nd webinar of its monthly webinar series. On this occasion, the guest speaker was Tomás García, Senior Director, Energy & Infrastructure Advisory at JLL. In addition to the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the webinar analyzed the “contracted revenues” for BESS projects, through the capacity market and Optimizer Agreements.
