In the first week of February, TTF gas futures prices continued to rise and reached the highest settlement price in the last two years at the end of the week. In this context, coupled with lower wind energy production and higher demand, prices in the main European electricity markets rose, with most weekly averages exceeding €120/MWh. Solar photovoltaic energy reached production records for a February day in Spain, Portugal and France.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of February 3, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. In the markets of the Iberian Peninsula, France and Germany it increased for the second consecutive week, while in the Italian market, it maintained the upward trend for the fourth week. On this occasion, the Spanish market registered the largest increase, 40%, while the German market had the smallest increase, 17%. The Portuguese, Italian and French markets registered increases of 25%, 30% and 31%, respectively.
During the week, the markets of France and the Iberian Peninsula registered historical records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a February day. In the French market, this happened on the 3rd, with 68 GWh. The Portuguese market registered its record production with this technology for a February day, 17 GWh, on the 5th. In the case of the Spanish market, on Thursday, February 6, it registered its highest daily photovoltaic energy generation for a February month, 129 GWh.
For the week of February 10, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts indicate increases in the German market, while they predict a decrease in the Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the first week of February, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the smallest decline, 20%, remaining downward for the second consecutive week. The Iberian markets registered the largest declines, 59% in Spain and 62% in Portugal. The Italian and French markets registered declines of 24% and 47%, respectively.
For the second week of February, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts, production will increase in the German market, while the markets of Italy, France and the Iberian Peninsula will register decreases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
In the first week of February, electricity demand increased in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French market registered the largest increase, 6.5%, while the Spanish market had the smallest increase, 0.5%. The Italian, British, Belgian, Dutch and German markets registered increases ranging from 1.5% in Italy and Great Britain to 3.9% in Germany. The Portuguese market was the exception, as demand fell for the second consecutive week, this time by 0.7%.
During the week, average temperatures were colder than the previous week in all markets. Declines in average temperatures ranged from 0.8 °C in Great Britain to 3.0 °C in Germany.
For the second week of February, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts indicate that demand will increase in the markets of the Netherlands, Great Britain, Germany and Belgium. On the other hand, forecasts point to a decline in demand in the markets of France, Spain, Portugal and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the first week of February, the average prices of the main European electricity markets increased. The N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest increase, 2.0%, while the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage price increases, 94% and 95%, respectively. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 7.8% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and 52% in the EPEX SPOT market of France.
In the week of February 3, weekly averages were above €120/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exception was the Nordic market, which registered the lowest average, €51.73/MWh. The IPEX market of Italy reached the highest weekly average, €153.81/MWh. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €123.35/MWh in the Portuguese market to €140.18/MWh in the Belgian market.
Regarding daily prices, in the first week of February, prices in most analyzed electricity markets remained above €105/MWh. The exception was the Nordic market, whose prices were below €90/MWh. This market reached a price of €33.11/MWh on February 5, which was the lowest price of the week in the analyzed markets. On the other hand, daily prices exceeded €150/MWh in some sessions of the first week of February in the German, Belgian, French, Italian and Dutch markets. The Italian market registered the highest price, €155.76/MWh, on February 9.
In the week of February 3, the fall in wind energy production and the increase in the weekly gas price, as well as the increase in demand in most markets, led to higher prices in the European electricity markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the second week of February, prices will fall in most European electricity markets. Increased wind and solar energy production in markets such as Germany and declining demand in France and Spain will contribute to these declines.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front?Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $76.20/bbl, on Tuesday, February 4. In the following sessions of the first week of the month, settlement prices remained below $75/bbl. On February 6, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $74.29/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the lowest price since December 28, 2024. On Friday, February 7, the settlement price was $74.66/bbl, 2.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Despite the increase in sanctions on Iranian oil, plans to ramp up production in the United States, as well as concerns about the impact of US tariff policies on global oil demand, continued to support the decline in Brent oil futures prices during the first week of February. Additionally, the increase in US oil reserves, coupled with a decline in gasoline demand in this country, also exerted downward pressure on these futures prices.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front?Month, they exceeded €50/MWh in all sessions of the first week of February. On Tuesday, February 4, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €52.05/MWh. However, prices rose in the following sessions of the first week of February. As a result, on Friday, February 7, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €55.72/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 4.7% higher than the previous Friday and the highest since February 7, 2023.
The decline in wind energy production and low temperatures led to an increase in gas demand during the first week of February. This favored the rise in TTF gas futures prices. Additionally, concerns about the level of European reserves, which was below 50% at the end of the first week of February, also contributed to the price increases.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Monday, February 3, prices fell by 3.6% compared to the last session of the previous week. Prices also declined slightly on Tuesday. On that day, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €80.88/t. In the remaining sessions of the first week of February, prices showed an upward trend. As a result, on Friday, February 7, these futures registered their weekly maximum settlement price, €82.28/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was still 2.0% lower than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets and storage in Europe
The 52nd webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place on Thursday, February 13. On this occasion, the guest speaker will be Tomás García, Senior Director, Energy & Infrastructure Advisory at JLL. This webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, as well as the “contracted revenues” for BESS projects, through the capacity market and Optimizer Agreements.
