The Danish consultancy Brinckmann has published a report with its market share forecasts by OEM for the 2024-2034 period. The report analyzes the wind market from the perspective of Western OEMs, examining their onshore and offshore sales across various countries and regions.
This is a client-only report, but they have shared an interesting preview on their LinkedIn account, which we will discuss here. Of course, for those interested in the full report, you can contact them through their website.
Onshore installations by Western OEM 2024-2034
Onshore installations by Western OEM 2024-2034
The first chart is quite surprising. Let’s break it down:
- Vestas will dominate the market with a 34% share of installations outside China. This figure is not surprising, as Vestas has just announced its best results in a long time, with a record order backlog, the most geographically diversified distribution among Western OEMs, and its own development pipeline, which will help boost sales.
- Nordex takes second place with an impressive 25% market share. Nordex has grown significantly in the past two years, especially capitalizing on Siemens Gamesa’s struggles with its 4.X and 5.X platforms, taking over its market share—particularly in Europe. In fact, in 2024, Nordex reached a record 8.3 GW in orders.
- GE Vernova ranks third, securing a significant 21% share, likely thanks to its dominant position in the U.S. market. The return of Trump could change this outlook, but the impact on onshore is expected to be less significant than in offshore.
- Enercon remains in fourth place with an 8% market share, keeping its position in line with recent years. The German OEM continues to hold its ground with a differentiated business model and product, remaining the only major OEM not publicly traded. It focuses on specific markets (such as Germany and Turkey) and carefully selected contracts.
- Finally, SGRE is the biggest surprise, as Brinckmann forecasts only a 6% market share. Given that the report covers 2024-2034, and considering its 4.X and 5.X platform issues, SGRE has already lost 2-3 crucial years. However, this would still be a major decline for a company that has historically been a market leader. According to Siemens Energy’s latest updates, the 4.X is back on sale, while efforts continue to restore the 5.X. Will SGRE struggle to regain customer confidence?
This content was originally published in Windletter, a weekly newsletter with the latest news from the wind energy sector. You can subscribe for free at this link.
